Moravecs Landscape of Human Competence

A metaphor by Hans Moravec about the ever-improving capabilities of Artificial Intelligence: The height represents the difficulty of tasks for computers, the rising water level is what computers can do.

In 1997, the roboticist and futurist Hans Moravec wrote:

Computers are universal machines, their potential extends uniformly over a boundless expanse of tasks. Human potentials, on the other hand, are strong in areas long important for survival, but weak in things far removed. Imagine a “landscape of human competence,” having lowlands with labels like “arithmetic” and “rote memorization”, foothills like “theorem proving” and “chess playing,” and high mountain peaks labeled “locomotion,” “hand-eye coordination” and “social interaction.” We all live in the solid mountaintops, but it takes great effort to reach the rest of the terrain, and only a few of us work each patch.

Advancing computer performance is like water slowly flooding the landscape. A half century ago it began to drown the lowlands, driving out human calculators and record clerks, but leaving most of us dry. Now the flood has reached the foothills, and our outposts there are contemplating retreat. We feel safe on our peaks, but, at the present rate, those too will be submerged within another half century. I propose (Moravec 1998) that we build Arks as that day nears, and adopt a seafaring life!

The illustration is from Max Tegmarks book Life 3.0 from 2017 – and I think the details (what is where) aren't that accurate and don't come from Moravec. It is interesting though, what the estimates in 2017 were.

References

Moravec, Hans (1998). When will computer hardware match the human brain? Journal of Evolution and Technology 1 (1):10. (Link)

Tegmark, Max (2017). Life 3.0. Allen Lane.